About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, December 09, 2017

Bitcoin Goes Parabolic

Bitcoin is the most prominent of the growing list of crypto-currencies. When I first encountered
it in 2008, its foundations were shrouded in mystery, but I think it was intended as an alternative
to fiat currency which had features that suggested that, unlike fiat currency, it was designed as
an inflation hedge which could maintain its value. As such, it should hold its value over
time when adjusted for the inflation rate. With inflation low and relatively stable in recent years,
the original concept suggested that Bitcoin's price should appreciate rather modestly. However,
it has become a plaything for wealthy individual traders and investors. Now that it has become
a high flyer, Wall Street has taken an interest and and a futures market is about to be rolled out.

It may well be, that over the long term, crypto-currency may occupy a spot along with PMs
such as gold in the inflation hedge play category. At the moment, however, it is in a parabolic
price formation and that kind of price curve rarely works out for those who come in long as
the move completes. It is tough to measure parabolic price action with accuracy, but the
Bitcoin curve looks like it may be in a terminal phase, at least for the short run.  CBTC Weekly


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