SPX -- Weekly

Technical
The SPX has weakened recently, but is still holding an uptrend from this Feb. based on weekly and
daily closing prices. An intermediate term overbought condition is being relieved and the break in
the MACD pattern should be source of concern, although whipsaws do happen. The market is
still supported by a rising 40 wk. m/a, but note the loss of positive momentum. The volatility index
(VIX, bottom panel) is trending up but is not at a threatening level by long term standards.
SPX Weekly

Fundamentals
Conflicting Fedspeak has whipped the market around. The FOMC meets shortly and Their trial
balloons suggest the market would not take kindly to a rate hike, especially with weakness in
recent key economic data such as the readings for the PMI's and retails sales. The fundamental
case for hiking rates does not exist, but the Fed faces push back nonetheless.

Trump's reminder that he plans to remove Janet Yellen from the chairmanship of the Fed if he is
elected does not seem of great concern to the market right now, but the type of cavalier criticisms
of Yellen he has offered would sow uncertainty and confusion in the markets if he becomes
president and plays this type of game.