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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, December 19, 2010

CRB Commodity Price Composite

The CRB - Jefferies commodites composite will enter 2011 with a cycle bull market intact.
It could even receive an extra kick in Q1 '11 if winter weather in the northern hemisphere
continues cold and snowy and if China does not accelerate credit tightening, which would
allow for normal seasonal stocking there.

However, the market is overbought, and as the linked-to chart shows, has exhibited fairly
strong discipline when it gets at a sharp premium to the 40 week m/a, as it is now. It will
be instructive to see how well the discipline holds up near term. $CRB chart.

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