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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, September 14, 2007

Stock Market -- Technical

One check I like to make on markets involves comparison
against the simple 10 and 25 day moving averages. the $SPX
is trending up as is the 10 M/A. Moreover, both have come
up through the 25 M/A. Interestingly, the 25 M/A has just
perked up a touch after a basing period. Check the chart.
The 25 M/A is likely to show some additional improvement next
week as well. It is a development that commands my attention,
as it is an additional sign that the market is turning positive
in the short run. There is much to cavil, of course. The volume
has been on the light side for several weeks, and the $SPX has
had trouble staying over the 1480 level. As well, it has yet
to take a good run at shorter term resistance at 1500. Note also
that there may be sharply increased volatility next week as the
FOMC announces on the Fed Funds target rate. Finally, recall
that many savvy technicians are looking for a retest of the
August low around 1371.

Did I damn the $SPX with faint praise? Maybe. But there is a
noteworthy positive development to be observed nonetheless.

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