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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Fedblitz

Over the past week or so, Fed governors have painted the
news tape with speeches focused on the economy, inflation
and the US dollar. Analysts and pundits have had to scramble
from one speech to the next to look for nuggets of info and
hints about monetary policy. By design, the speeches have
featured different shades of emphasis and perspective. This
is an old Fed tactic which they deploy to tell people to
lay off them and start doing their own homework. What prompts it?

> Scrutiny by analysts becomes so intense, it is intrusive.

> The Street, the media and financial pundits shift from analysis
to trying to shape the Fed's agenda and manage them via pointed
editorializing.

> The chairman comes under personal attack for not telling analysts
what most might want to hear.

When the governors pop off and seem to be all over the map, their
intent is to wear out the horde that is reading the semantic tea leaves
to elicit policy info.

This device often works because so many Fed watchers do not have a clear
understanding of how the Fed actually develops and implements policy.

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